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01# Livestock product output, trade and prices in major countries
(1) Pork
In terms of production: U.S. pork production in February was 1.058 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.
U.S. pork production by month
Trade: In February, exports from the United States and Brazil both increased year-on-year. From the United States, pork exports were 269,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. Among them, exports to China were 14,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%. From Brazil, pork exports were 93,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. Among them, exports to China were 26,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%.
U.S. Pork Export Trends
Brazilian Pork Export Trends
In terms of price: U.S. pork prices continue to rise. The average wholesale price of pork cuts in March 2024 was 1.97 US dollars/kg, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Converted according to the exchange rate in the same period, the wholesale price of pork cuts in March was 14.65 yuan. /Kilogram. EU pork prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but are still at a low level. In March 2024, the EU pork price was 17.05 yuan/kg, an increase of 5.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Brazilian pork prices continue to fall. In March 2024, the price of Brazilian pork was US$1.92/kg, down 0.5% month-on-month and 9.7% year-on-year. Converted according to the exchange rate for the same period, the Brazilian pork price in March was 13.84 yuan/kg.
U.S. Pork Data
EU pork data
Brazilian Pork Data
(2) Poultry meat
In terms of production: U.S. poultry meat production in February was 1.911 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.
U.S. poultry meat production changes
Trade: In February, U.S. exports fell year-on-year, while Brazilian exports increased year-on-year. From the United States, chicken exports were 248,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, exports to China were 5,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 63.2%. From Brazil, chicken exports were 388,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Among them, exports to China were 42,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%.
U.S. chicken export trends
Brazilian chicken export trends
In terms of price: US chicken prices rose slightly in March 2024, up 0.6% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year; EU chicken price consumption increased in March 2024, with chicken prices rising 1.9% month-on-month and down 2.4% year-on-year; March 2024 Brazilian chicken prices fell slightly in March. Chicken prices in March fell by 0.9% month-on-month and increased by 2.4% year-on-year. (calculated in RMB price)
US chicken prices
EU chicken prices
brazilian chicken price
(3) Beef
In terms of production: U.S. beef production in February was 970,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
U.S. beef production
Trade: In February, beef exports from Brazil and Australia both increased year-on-year, while the United States declined year-on-year. From Brazil, beef exports were 204,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. Among them, exports to China were 96,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. From the United States, beef exports were 111,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Among them, exports to China were 19,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. From Australia, beef exports were 94,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. Among them, exports to China were 16,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%.
U.S. Beef Export Trends
Brazilian beef export trends
Australian beef export trends
Price: U.S. beef prices continue to rise sharply. Beef prices in March rose 7.4% month-on-month (up 12.7% last month) and 14.2% year-on-year. (calculated in RMB price)
US beef prices
(4) Mutton
Australia's mutton exports are at an all-time high, and exports to China have grown significantly. In February, Australia exported 56,000 tons of mutton, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. Among them, sheep meat exports were 42,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%; goat meat exports were 4,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92.1%. Mutton exports to China were 12,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%.
Australian mutton export trends
02# International livestock product price index
(1) Meat
The FAO meat price index continued to rise in March 2024. Among them, the prices of poultry, beef and pork all increased, while the price of mutton fell. The FAO meat price index (the base period is 2014-2016) began to fall continuously in July 2023. It fell to 110.46 in January 2024 and then rebounded. It was 112.99 in March, up 1.7% month-on-month and down 1.5% year-on-year.
Pork: Due to growing demand in China and supply shortages in Western Europe, pork prices rose. The pork price index was 110.61, an increase of 2.0% month-on-month (recovering for 2 consecutive months) and a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Poultry meat: Affected by the increase in global demand for poultry meat, poultry meat prices rose. The poultry meat price index was 110.71, up 2.0% month-on-month (rising for 2 consecutive months) and down 1.8% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 12 consecutive months). . Beef: Supply and demand in the beef market are both strong. The beef price index is 118.55, up 1.8% month-on-month (rising for 2 consecutive months) and 1.9% year-on-year (higher than the same period last year for 5 consecutive months). Mutton: Mutton prices fell as Australian mutton exports increased significantly. The mutton price index was 98.03, down 2.0% month-on-month (down for 2 consecutive months), and down 20.6% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 13 consecutive months).
FAO Meat Price Index
(2) Dairy products
Global dairy product prices will rebound in March 2024. Specifically, it continued to fall from 144.67 in January 2023 to 111.98 in September. It began to rebound in October and rose to 124.17 in March, up 2.9% month-on-month and down 8.2% year-on-year (lower than the same period last year for 14 consecutive months). ). In February, the global wholesale price of whole milk powder increased month-on-month for the fifth consecutive month, reaching US$3,982/ton, up 0.3% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year. Among them, the wholesale price of whole milk powder in the United States was US$4,626/ton, an increase of 1.8% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the wholesale price of whole-fat milk powder in Oceania had increased month-on-month for five consecutive months, to US$3,394/ton, an increase of 3.4% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase. 4.2%; the EU wholesale price of whole milk powder has fallen for 2 consecutive months, reaching US$3,925/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Converted according to the RMB exchange rate during the same period, the global wholesale price of whole milk powder in February was 28,613 yuan/ton. Among them, the prices of the United States, Oceania and the European Union are 33,245 yuan/ton, 24,388 yuan/ton and 28,205 yuan/ton respectively. The auction price of whole milk powder on February 20 was US$3,388/ton, and the discounted price of raw milk was 3.99 yuan/kg.
03# Later market outlook
Meat prices are expected to maintain a slight increase in the second quarter.
Pork: The supply of major producing countries has declined slightly, and import demand in Asia has recovered, and international pork prices will rise slightly.
Poultry meat: Global poultry meat demand is growing, coupled with the decline in production in European and American countries affected by avian influenza, international poultry meat prices will rise.
Beef: With the steady increase in beef production, the increase in international beef prices will slow down.
Mutton: Mutton production in Oceania is increasing, import demand in Asia is weakening, and international mutton prices will fall.
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